They’re Not Gone, Just Quiet: Rethinking Lapsed Audiences

In the arts, it’s easy to assume that when a patron doesn’t come back within a year, they’ve moved on. Maybe they didn’t like the programming. Maybe they didn’t have a good experience. Maybe they’re just gone. But what if they’re not?

What if they’re just… quiet?

At TRG Arts, we think it's time to reframe how we define a "lapsed" audience member, and take a deeper look at what your data is really saying about churn.

Rethinking “Lapsed”: Why 18 Months Matters

Traditionally, many organizations use a 12-month cut-off to determine if a patron has lapsed. That made sense when audience behavior was more predictable. But in today's landscape—where people buy later, attend less frequently, and juggle more competing options—12 months is no longer a reliable indicator of disinterest.

Our data shows that many patrons return between 13 and 18 months after their last visit. If you stop talking to them at month 12, you may be cutting ties too soon.

This is why TRG recommends using an 18-month window to define "lapsed." It gives your patrons a little more breathing room—and gives you more opportunity to keep the relationship alive.

Know not Just When They Left—But Why

Before you can win back a lapsed audience member, you need to understand why they stopped coming in the first place.

Your database is full of clues.

Using churn diagnostics, you can segment patrons by behavior and value:

• Did they attend just once, or were they a frequent visitor?
• Did they downgrade (from multi-buy to single ticket) or disappear entirely?
• Was their spend increasing, stable, or declining?

Each type of churn tells a different story, and requires a different response. For instance:

• A high-spending, long-term patron who stops buying may signal dissatisfaction or life changes. These folks deserve a personal touch.
• A one-time buyer who doesn’t return might reflect a transactional relationship. Maybe the right upsell or offer wasn’t made at the right time.

Understanding the “why” helps you craft smarter campaigns, better messages, and more relevant offers.

What the Data Tells Us

Here are some key insights from TRG’s work with hundreds of arts organizations:

• The vast majority of first-time buyers don’t return without a prompt. New buyers are high-risk but high-potential; if you act fast.
• Lapsed patrons who were once loyal are more likely to return than brand-new leads. Don’t ignore the quiet fans in your database.

Practical Takeaways

1. Expand your definition of “active." Shift from a 12-month to an 18-month lapse window.
2. Invest in churn diagnostics. Identify different types of churn and tailor your messaging accordingly.
3. Don’t just win them back—keep them engaged. Create journeys that nudge patrons back before they go cold.

They’re not gone. They’re not lost. They’re just quiet—and waiting to be invited back.