What if the financial pressures facing arts and culture aren't temporary? What if changing audience behavior isn't a problem to fix, but a sign that the models we've relied on need to change?
For arts & cultural leaders, the question is no longer simply how to recover lost revenue or rebuild attendance. It's whether today's decisions are preparing their institutions for a future that may look very different from the past.
That was the central provocation of TRG's recent roundtable, The Fourth Turning: What Comes Next for Arts & Culture?, hosted by CEO Jill Robinson alongside six North American arts leaders.
Developed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning is a theory suggesting that societies experience recurring cycles of stability, disruption and renewal. They argue that periods of crisis can fundamentally reshape established institutions. It's a theory, not a prediction, but it offers a useful way to challenge our assumptions about the future.
It's not a prediction of the future, but it raises a provocative question for arts and cultural leaders: Are we preparing for what comes next, or still trying to restore a world that's already changed?
Here are five questions that could change how you think about your institution's future.
Restoring attendance, managing costs and balancing budgets matter. But returning to pre-pandemic performance doesn't necessarily mean returning to a sustainable business model.
"The pandemic didn't cause our problems, it simply made them impossible to ignore."
David Schmitz, Founder and Lead Advisor at Amplify Leadership Advisors and Interim Executive Director at American Conservatory Theater, San Francisco
The leadership challenge: If you were building your institution for 2035, what would you stop doing today?
TRG Arts' mid-2026 North American data from the Arts & Culture Benchmark shows single-ticket buying households up 13%, while households participating in subscription and similar frequency programs are down 26%, compared with 2017–18.
Audience relationships are changing. But that doesn't necessarily mean loyalty is disappearing.
Some patrons want flexibility. Others develop deep relationships through occasional attendance or community participation. Traditional subscriptions still matter, but they aren't the only indicator of commitment.
The leadership challenge: How would your audience strategy change if you defined loyalty by the strength of relationships rather than the products people purchase?
Financial pressure makes contraction tempting, and sometimes necessary. But reducing costs without a clear future strategy can also weaken an institution's ability to grow.
"A crisis is also an extraordinary opportunity to invest."
Chad Bauman, Executive Director at Milwaukee Rep
The question isn't whether every institution should expand indefinitely. It's whether the decisions we're making today create the conditions for future success.
The leadership challenge: Where could targeted investment create greater long-term value than another round of cuts?
Reinvention starts with a different question. Instead of focusing solely on the institution's survival, what would happen if we began by understanding what our communities need from us?
That might mean rethinking access, programming, partnerships or how our spaces are used.
As Ben Cameron challenged the panel, meaningful reinvention requires looking outward rather than inward.
The leadership challenge: If your institution disappeared tomorrow, what would your community miss most?
The expectations of tomorrow's audiences may be very different from those of the audiences who shaped today's business models.
From flexible membership to arts experiences beyond traditional venues, the roundtable highlighted how leaders are experimenting with new ways for people to participate and belong.
"Our sacred duty isn't to tell audiences what to think. It's to expand what they're capable of imagining."
Tinashe Kajese-Bolden, Jennings Hertz Artistic Director at Alliance Theatre
The leadership challenge: If the next generation were designing your institution, what would they change?
Hear Jill Robinson and six arts leaders explore the decisions shaping the future of arts and culture, from financial resilience and changing audience loyalty to community relevance and reinvention.
These five questions don't have easy answers. And the right response will look different for every institution.
But they raise a bigger question: Are we making decisions for the institution we inherited, or the one our communities will need next?
We'd love to hear what resonates with you, where you're seeing the biggest challenges and opportunities, and what questions you'd like us to explore next.
Your perspective will help shape future Leading the Way conversations and TRG Arts resources.