You don’t need a breaking news alert to sense it.
Budgets tightening. Audiences hesitating. Funders pausing. The air is thick with uncertainty. And while the word “recession” hasn’t taken center stage (yet), it’s quietly regaining ground in boardrooms and budget meetings alike.
You might call this pre-cession.
It’s the uneasy pause before the potential plunge. A time of heightened alertness and pressure. And make no mistake - it’s a defining moment for arts leaders.
Because the truth is, we’ve already used up our margin for error. After years of disruption, there’s no room left for unexamined assumptions or business-as-usual behavior. Now is not the time to wait and see. It’s the time to act: with clarity and courage.
At TRG Arts, we’re hearing it from every corner. From leading cultural institutions to community-based venues, arts leaders are grappling with the same knot in their stomach: What if the storm is coming again - and this time, we’re already weather-worn?
In times of uncertainty, clarity is key. TRG’s Four Pillars - Recency, Demand, People, and Discipline - offer that. Built from over 30 years of data and field experience, they help arts leaders cut through the noise, focus on what truly drives revenue, and build resilience before crisis hits. In this pre-cession moment, they’re not just good practice; they’re the foundation for strategic action.
Strategy, Not Survival
The instinct may be to retreat. To freeze hiring, slash marketing spend or program ‘safe’ titles. The truth? You cannot cut your way to sustainability.
The organizations that will thrive in this pre-cession are not those waiting for certainty, they’re the ones designing for resilience right now.
Now is the time to invest wisely, retain intentionally, and lead strategically. That’s where TRG’s four pillars come in: Recency. Demand. People. Discipline.
Here's how they show up right now, when it matters most.
1. Recency: Start with Who's Still Here
It’s hard not to miss the audiences who haven’t come back. But longing for pre-2020 attendance patterns won’t pay tomorrow’s bills. In the pre-cession, Recency asks you to stop chasing the ghosts of the past and focus on the real people who just showed up. They’re your most powerful signal, and your best shot at building sustainable revenue.
Whether they attended a blockbuster show or a niche event, those who’ve transacted recently are demonstrating intent. That’s your signal to reciprocate with relevance, because right now it’s taking longer than ever for them to return
Leaders who embrace Recency aren’t just sending more emails, they’re showing up for their audience with clarity and care:
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They follow up quickly - because timing matters more than perfection.
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They prioritize recent attenders in every campaign - not because they’re easy, but because they’re already halfway there.
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They measure second visits as success - not just single ticket sales.
The behavior is already there. Your job is to honor it, respond to it, and grow from it.
Are you nurturing the audiences who are showing up - or spending energy on the ones who didn’t?
2. Demand: Don’t Confuse Output with Impact
When sales soften or seats stay empty, it’s tempting to panic - to slash prices, offer more comps, or double down on “safe” programming. But panic pricing chips away at audience trust, staff confidence, and future revenue. Demand management is the practice of recognizing that value still exists, and managing inventory and price accordingly.
We help organizations move from reaction to intention by:
- Making pricing a conversation rooted in data, not anxiety.
- Reviewing demand weekly - so decisions are informed and responsive.
- Adjusting seating and offers with purpose - not guesswork.
Are you trying to fill seats, or create experiences people believe are worth paying for?
3. People: Align Around the Ones Who Will Get You There
When resources are tight and expectations high, it’s easy to feel stuck. Teams are doing more with less. Revenue targets feel immovable. And often, it’s not clear who will actually help get you across the line. The People pillar reminds us: strategy doesn’t start with spreadsheets, it starts with human behavior. But to lead people effectively - both inside and outside your organization - you need specificity.
This is about more than morale. It’s about unit-driven clarity, and knowing exactly which audience segments, donors, and ticket buyers are going to help meet your goals, and aligning your teams around that insight:
- Forecast by behavior segment: multi-buyers, reactivated lapsed, recent first-timers.
- Break down big targets into small, manageable units of action - per segment, per campaign, per goal.
- Equip teams with real-time insights that show where progress is coming from, and where intervention is needed.
- Align internal roles and responsibilities to these segments, so every team member knows which relationships they’re supporting and why
Do you know exactly which people will help you hit your goals; and does your team know how to reach them?
4. Discipline: Turn Urgency into a System, not a Scramble
When times get tough, discipline can feel like a drag. But in truth, it’s your superpower.
Even the strongest teams can default to survival mode, reacting to what’s loudest instead of what’s most important. Plans get shelved. Campaigns get rushed. Everyone is busy, but few feel effective. The Discipline pillar is about creating calm in the chaos.
It’s about building systems that help you act with intention, even when the pressure is real.
Discipline isn’t about doing more - it’s about doing what matters, consistently:
- Regular planning cycles that are short enough to adapt, long enough to stay ahead.
- Defining clear decision points - when to pivot, when to hold, and how to adjust.
- Frequent check-ins that connect teams to progress and purpose.
- Clear decision points, so you’re not scrambling under pressure.
Are you and your team all rowing in the same direction?
From “Pre-cession” to Progression
The path ahead may not be predictable, but it doesn’t have to be paralyzing.
The arts sector has been through the wringer. But we’ve also learned that resilience isn’t about bouncing back, it’s about building forward. That means facing this moment not with fear, but with strategy.
You don’t need to know exactly what’s coming next to start making smarter decisions now. By focusing on what’s within your control - your most recent audiences, your real demand signals, your internal alignment, and your operational discipline - you can create the conditions for resilience, not just reaction.
Clarity Starts with a Conversation
At TRG, we’re here to help you retain the right audiences, focus on the right metrics, and take the right next steps. Not everything is in our control. But how we prepare? That part is.
We’re here to walk this path with you. Whether you need to tighten your focus, recalibrate your goals, or re-energize your team, we’ll meet you where you are and help you move forward—strategically, confidently, and together.
Because even if recession is coming, your strategy doesn’t have to be reactive. Let’s build a future that’s resilient by design.
Schedule a call, and let’s start the conversation.
