Sharp Fall in Optimism Among U.S. Arts and Culture Organizations
for Return to In-Person Performances in 2020
September Study Reveals Increase in U.K. and Decline in Canadian Organizations’ Optimism
TRG Arts published its findings to an initial study of 74 clients’ performance return plans in June 2020. The findings from that report can be found here. An update to that study, expanded to 133 arts and culture organizations across three countries and published in July, reflected waning optimism for an autumn return to in-person live performances and a formal turn to paid digital programming after shutdowns caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic.
The study was refreshed and expanded on September 2, 2020, and represents 219 organizations’ current scenario plans for returning to in-person paid performance, as well as those same organizations’ plans for offering paid digital programming. Responses reflect arts and culture organizations across all disciplines of arts and culture in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
The study does not contemplate
Regional Outlooks Reflect Level of Viral Containment
As the number of Americans testing positive for COVID-19 continues to grow, optimism for a 2020 in-person return to performances sharply fell for U.S. arts and culture leaders. The September study reveals 23% of U.S. organizations expect to perform to in-person audiences in 2020, compared to 61% in the initial June study.
Positive containment and infection reduction in the U.K. reveal more optimism for a 2020 in-person return to performances, while flaring cases in some provinces of Canada decreased optimism as described in Table 1.
Table 1: Organizations Planning 2020 In-Person Performances, by Region
| Organization Country |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, June study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, July study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, September study |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 44% | 50% | 42% |
| United Kingdom | 50% | 64% | 71% |
| United States | 61% | 41% | 23% |
Compared to the July study, 27% of TRG Arts clients have moved their in-person performance plans earlier in the calendar. 30% have delayed further in-person performances an average two additional months. 43% of clients have not changed the dates of their expected return to in-person performances.
Across the entire study, 30% of organizations plan in-person performances resuming prior to December 2020, with the vast majority (46%) planning an October season start. 20% plan to wait until December to perform, down from 44% in the July study. 15% of U.S. organizations expect to perform by October, while the number that plan to perform in-person by December has decreased from 41% in the July study to 23%.
Table 2a: Organizations Planning 2020 In-Person Performances, by Genre
| Performance Genre | % Expecting 2020 In-Person Performances |
|---|---|
| Multi-disciplinary | 75% |
| Dance | 71% |
| Theatre | 43% |
| Orchestra | 38% |
| Presenter | 37% |
| Cinema | 0% |
| Opera/Choral | 0% |
| Other Music | 0% |
Table 2b: U.S. Organizations Planning 2020 In-Person Performances, by Genre
| Performance Genre |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, June study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, July study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, September study |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-disciplinary | 100% | 73% | 26% |
| Dance | 83% | 67% | 27% |
| Presenter | 57% | 37% | 26% |
| Theatre | 52% | 37% | 23% |
| Orchestra | 50% | 36% | 19% |
Chart 1a: In-Person Performance Plans – All genres, all regions
Chart 1b: In-Person Performance Plans – All genres, U.S. organizations
Declining Optimism in U.S.
One of the most surprising findings in the initial Comeback study is that regions hardest and earliest impacted by COVID-19 and the resulting shutdowns, were among the most optimistic for an autumn return. The September study reflects decreasing confidence in all regions for a 2020 return to in-person performances. Notably is the decrease of optimism in the Northeast to 16% (from 41% in July) and a sharp decline in 2020 performance plans in the South.
Table 3: U.S. client return expectations in 2020, by region
| U.S. Client Region |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, June study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, July study |
% Expecting 2020
In-Person Performances, September study |
|---|---|---|---|
| South | 100% | 100% | 33% |
| Southeast | 75% | 55% | 33% |
| Northeast | 71% | 41% | 16% |
| West | 55% | 32% | 14% |
| Midwest | 38% | 36% | 27% |
Continued Reliance on In-Person over Digital
The July Comeback study added organizational responses about when paid digital content would be introduced to offset revenue losses from the cancellation of in-person performances. 48% of organizations plan to offer paid digital content in 2020 (up from 36% in July), a majority of which plan to introduce – or have already introduced – paid digital content in advance of paid in-person performances. 23% of organizations are introducing paid digital content earlier than originally reported in July, with a third delaying their digital plans.
52% of participating organizations do not have plans to offer paid digital content within the next 12 months.
59% of participating Canadian organizations plan to introduce paid digital programming, while 50% of U.S. and 26% of U.K. organizations articulated an initiation date for paid digital engagement.
Table 4: Paid digital engagement plans in next 12 months
| Timing of Paid Digital Engagement | % Organizations |
|---|---|
| Introduced before paid in-person performances | 37% |
| Introduced in same month as paid in-person performances | 4% |
| Introduced after paid in-person performances resume | 7% |
| No plans for paid digital engagement | 52% |
Chart 2a: Paid Digital Plans – All genres, all regions
Chart 2b: Paid Digital Plans – All genres, U.S. organizations
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